Monday, September 1, 2008

1 Particular Statistic

In a country not so far away, there used to be 1 Prime Minister named Mahamantri.

The parliament had started only 5 weeks in the summer & he was already in a position where he wished that the post of Prime Minister had bit more glory than the gory that he had to face.

15 minutes into the Question Hour today, he was asked why healthy lifestock were being smuggled across the border. And the question was raised by none other than the leader of the opposition Gyanpapi himself. The issue that Gyanpapi wanted to be discussed was how the government could allow the sacred alligator to be smuggled across to be slaughtered along with sick or dieing livestock.

He was furious when he returned to his office half an hour before lunch on a Tuesday. The blistering heat outside his fully climate regulated office was adding up his anger for sure. He after all, would have to lunch with some rich international business-man. The eccentric businessman was the owner of the Kalo Koila. He had sales all over the world & was listed in the Fortune 10 list of richest people. But he remembered his roots & had a farmhouse just outside the capital. The Prime-Minister needed to visit him there to request sponsorship of a new power plant. But that is a separate story.

The Prime Minister called his Head of Animal Department Janoar & asked him to come to his office. The conversation was short & as follows.

Janoar: Good Morning Sir

Mahamantri: How many alligators are smuggled out of the country?

Janoar: emmm I……. think Sir not many. Cant be many

Mahamantri: Who would know? You obviously never know anything.

Janoar: Sir I do know something….

Mahamantri: Ok tell me the exact count of living livestock in the country?

Janoar: emmmmm…..errrrrr….

Mahamantri: I give you 7 days time. By next Wednesday Morning Hour I must know the exact figure. Now go & send me Jagroto

Janoar: yes Sir

& Janoar fled the office.

He stopped by the department of Foreign Trade previously part of Department of Trade to tell Jagroto of the Big Boss call. Jagroto practically scampered from his couch almost toppling the new secretary.

Janoar was too distressed with his own problem at hand that he gave the cute girl a pass-by-glance & headed towards the Department of Plants, headed by Bhuson. The Daily had recently run a story where they meticulously proved that Bhuson & Janoar were young dynamic bureaucrats along with being partners in crime for quite a few recent political turmoil’s. They were after-all childhood friends. Langotia Yaar literally.

Janoar: I am doomed

Bhuson: What did you do this time?

Janoar: Big Boss wants to know the exact count of livestock in the country.

Bhuson: ooh…. You are doomed. Let me think.

Bhuson lighted an imported cigarette. He has been smoking these ever since he started traveling abroad & frequenting the foreign bureaucrats club.

Bhuson: Let us just form a committee for Livestock Count. And actually we two are enough. & let us ask all the State Head's to report to us how many livestock they have at their states. We would add up the numbers & that should suffice.

Janoar: Ok. Let us send a circular right now. Time they have is till next Tuesday afternoon.

The State Heads received a simple circular almost as the same time Mahamantri sat down for lunch on the ground in the blistering heat. Well not directly in the sun but in a shade created by hay. The eccentric owner of Kalo Koila loves to be in sync with Mother Nature. But that is a separate story altogether. The circular stated in the grandiose bureaucratic language to send over the count of total livestock along with count of alligators.

The State Head of East didn’t waste time & by the time Mahamantri was getting up from lunch they were in a meeting with his most trusted workers trying to figure out the exact count of livestock. What they did figure out after a good amount of time spent deciding what to eat in that impromptu meeting, which was just after lunch for most, was to take a stand similar to the centre was the best route. A circular went out to all Heads of District in the state that they had time till Monday lunch to report in the count of livestock in their district.

Champak was the Junior State TT Champion when he was only 11 yrs old. He had always been the sportsman. His admission to every sphere of his life was through sports. Well the Sports Quota was above all quotas. And he had used it well. He never studied but scraped through college before he got into the bureaucracy & was the Head of District of Aampara. Today afternoon he was playing TT with Kanu, his counterpart in Exchequer. He had won the 1st set. Lost the 2nd and at lead with 19-17 in the 3rd. They usually played 5 sets every Tuesday afternoon before hitting the bar. Since both were through sports quota they needed to keep their practice up. After all this was the only thing to do.

Bamu the secretary of Champak walked into the sports floor with the circular. It was marked urgent. Champak had no interest in the circular especially when he felt he had got his form finally. He told Bamu to put it in his dispatch box. He would read it sometime. Anyways no work can be done once it was afternoon. When he reached home that night he had to listen to his wife’s day & plan for their week-end trip to the outing at Murguma. He had to promise to take her shopping tomorrow before they could retire for the night. He read the circular in the car ride next morning but didn’t find time to think on it. Wednesday’s were always busy days. And he had to leave early. The shopping trip is obviously accompanied with a movie in a multiplex dinner at some swanky restaurant. He was fuming the next day when he realized the total amount he had to shell out for the Murguma trip. But he could not back out since many of the state’s bureaucrats were going. Friday went by planning & getting ready for the weekend. Saturday morning they left.

As it happens in all of these trips or parties, the bureaucrats got together in the bar & the females got together in the spa. Saturday zoomed by & it was the last round of drinks on Sunday late afternoon when Champak was in a group where Sidhu the District head from Jaampara was entertaining them with a story of a silly circular from the State Head. Sidhu trying to showcase his brilliance declared that he had applied statistics to find the number. He didn’t want to waste time to find the number through census but had taken two sample areas of 10 cubic fins & then calculated for the whole state. He of course didn’t mention that he was sure of the area of the two plots because he was the owner of both. The second one was behind his office & he had counted the number of livestock in it during Thursday afternoon siesta & just because he could not sleep. The brilliant stroke of using statistic had come since he was musing about Sheetal his college crush. She was in the same class & he distinctly remembers the first time she had smiled at him. The professor was talking something about sampling. For statistic of the whole population sampling allows one to to do something. A small sample would give the values of the population. He had sent the report on Friday.

Champak realized that he had to send his report too. While returning he asked the driver to stop at a plot. He knew that this plot was of 10 cubic fins. He had received a packet from the owner of it. While counting in the fading light of twilight he could not decipher whether the last animal on the field was an alligator or a crocodile. So he marked 5.5 alligators & 16 livestock. He knew the plot was of 10 cubic fins & he had total of 65780 cubic fins in his district. So he should have 36179 alligators & 1052480 livestock. He sent his report 1st thing on Monday morning. The State Head’s personal secretary Sheetal, added all the numbers & submitted a report to the State Head on Monday evening. She did not mention that not all districts had sent the figures yet. She averaged out the received values & multiplied it with number of states. She had a major in Statistics though she would agree that through college she was more interested in counting the number of hearts she broke. She got a tongue lashing for being late. She had been waiting for it since Monday can't end without one. The report was immediately dispatched for the centre.

Tuesday morning Janoar’s most trusted aide summed up the numbers after calling secretary of State Head of North to send their figure immediately.

Janoar was very please when he got the neatly typed perfectly worded report was placed on his desk. He appreciated his aide for his consistent good work & set him the task of getting the name & details of the secretary of Jagroto. Good juicy gossip material should always be investigated. Janoar went to Bhuson to discuss the number. They decided to go to Mahamantri just before lunch. If he was pleased then maybe he would have lunch with them today. Every morning all Head of Department check if Mahamantri had any lunch plans. If none then they would try to have their lunch fixed with him. It is a great prestige if you are seen having lunch with the Mahamantri.

Janoar & Bhuson: Sir we have the figures

Mahamantri: What figures?

Janoar: Sir the livestock of the country.

Mahamantri: For what?

Janoar: Livestock sir. Alligators, crocodiles,….

Mahamantri: I know aht livestock means but why the earth would I want that?

Bhuson: Sir you would wanted to know that last Tuesday after Gyanpapi asked about smuggling...

Mahamantri: ooh yes. & what is it?

Janoar: Sir the value is 855739274 livestock of which 99246357 are alligators.

Mahamantri: Please add yourself & all Heads of State & all Heads of District to that. My daughter told me how his husband calculated the total for his district. We have achieved the mental intelligence of sea-donkeys.







the above is my first attempt at writing fiction. The plot is sadly not mine.

4 comments:

Som's Studio said...

Fascinating!! I read your work of fiction at one go...

Your plot-provider and you can surely open your own line of publications. The line of customers on opening nite will start from DGP to KOL...or rather from HYD to BLR.

Well, I would surely buy your books.
Cheers!!

Shuvojit said...

The Plot-Provider as you conveniently named him was a Prof in Stat in my under-grad.
This was the 1st story he told about statistics. how much ppl go wrong in applying it.

Suvro Sarkar said...

Hmmm...what do they call it...sampling error - error of insufficient sample space?

Good story telling btw...and characters appropriately named for most part...btw, the daughter of the Mahamantri - she was married to which of the bureaucrats you have mentioned?

Shuvojit said...

Suvranondo i had to leave somethings to your imagination. You choose


& letz not go into statistics... there are i beleive too many errors to try 2 list & blantly refuse to make public display of the extent of my knowledge in that subject